A Methodology of Triage For Bridges in Depopulating Society: Modeling Based on Population and Network Connectivity

Takaaki Kawanaka, Masanobu Matsumaru, Shuichi Rokugawa, Hirohito Suzuki

Abstract


Developed countries like Germany and Japan, and many of their municipalities currently have large debts that will likely increase over time. These debts may never be repaid because debt repayment per capita will increase as a result of decreasing populations. It has become difficult for them to maintain many of their existing bridges because of large debts. Given the challenges faced with maintaining these bridges, it is necessary to formulate plans that may include discontinuing the maintenance on certain bridges. Therefore, this study proposes the use of a triage methodology for managing bridges (e.g., highway bridges) much like the triage methodology used by medical institutions to handle large numbers of patients after a severe disaster. More specifically, the proposed methodology makes decisions based on whether or not to build a new bridge after an existing bridge has reached the end of its lifespan and is decommissioned by evaluating factors such as cost and convenience. This is done by establishing a virtual network comprising of links made up of bridges that span across towns. This study proposes models and simulates this social problem by virtual networks and virtual bridge data, which can then be used to derive an optimal solution.


Keywords:

bridge; demographic energy; depopulating society; network connectivity; simulation; triage.

Full Text:

PDF

References


Anderson, J. E. 2011. The Gravity Model, Annual Review of Economics 3: 133–160. http://dx.doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-111809-125114

Barone, G.; Frangopol, D. M.; Soliman, M. 2014. Optimization of Life-Cycle Maintenance of Deteriorating Bridges with Respect to Expected Annual System Failure Rate and Expected Cumulative Cost, Journal of Structural Engineering 140(2): 10.1061/(ASCE)ST.1943-541 X.0000812, 04013043

Bergstrand, J.; Egger, P. 2011. Gravity Equations and Economic Frictions in the World Economy, in Palgrave Handbook of International Trade. Ed. by Bernhofen, D.; Falvey, R.; Greenaway, D.; Krieckemeier, U. New York: Palgrave-Macmillan.

Erath, A.; Löchl, M.; Axhausen, K. W. 2009. Graph-Theoretical Analysis of the Swiss Road and Railway Networks Over Time, Networks Spatial Economics 9(3): 379–400. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s11067-008-9074-7

Floyd, R. W. 1962. Algorithm 97: Shortest Path, Communications of the ACM 5(6): 345. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/367766.368168

Frangopol, D. M.; Kong, J. S.; Gharaibeh, E. S. 2001. Reliability- Based Life-Cycle Management of Highway Bridges, Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering 15(1): 27–34. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0887-3801(2001)15:1(27)

Furuyama, M. 1988. Evaluate Index U for Regional Networks, Papers on City Planning, City Planning Institute of Japan 23: 25–30.

Gray, R. H.; Sen, A. K. 1983. Estimating Gravity Model Parameters: a Simplified Approach Based on the Odds Ratio, Transportation Research Part B: Methodological 17(2): 117–131. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0191-2615(83)90040-1

Hao, S. 2010. I-35W Bridge Collapse, Journal of Bridge Engineering 15(5): 608–614. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)BE.1943-5592.0000090

Hudson, W. R.; Haas, R.; Uddin, W. 1997. Infrastructure Management: Integrating Design, Construction, Maintenance, Rehabilitation, and Renovation, McGraw-Hill. 393 p.

Kaito, K.; Abe, M.; Fujino, Y. 2003. Prediction of Deterioration of Bridge Structures Based on Actual Inspection Data, Journal of Japan Society of Civil Engineers 744(4–61): 29–38. http://doi.org/10.2208/jscej.2003.744_29

Kita, T.; Chikata, Y. 2010. The Fundamental Study of Bridge Maintenance Plan by Game Theory (Nash Bargaining Solution), Journal of Structural Engineering 56A: 189–196. http://doi.org/10.11532/structcivil.56A.189

Kong, J. S.; Frangopol, D. M. 2005. Probabilistic Optimization of Aging Structures Considering Maintenance and Failure Costs, Journal of Structural Engineering 131(4): 600–616. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2005)131:4(600)

Kuriyama, Y.; Suzuki, K.; Nishino, N.; Okita, T. 2014. Triage for Artifacts, in Proc. of the 5th Biannual Comprehensive Symposium of Transdisciplinary Federation of Science and Technology, 62–63.

Langville, A. N.; Meyer, C. D. 2006. Google’s PageRank and Beyond: the Science of Search Engine Rankings, Princeton University Press.

Lethanh, N.; Adey, B. T.; Fernando, D. N. 2015. Optimal Intervention Strategies for Multiple Objects Affected by Manifest and Latent Deterioration Processes, Structure and Infrastructure Engineering: Maintenance, Management, Life-Cycle Design and Performance 11(3): 389–401. http://dx.doi.org/10.1080/15732479.2014.889178

Liu, M.; Frangopol, D. M. 2006. Optimizing Bridge Network Maintenance Management under Uncertainty with Conflicting Criteria Life-Cycle Maintenance, Failure, and User Costs, Journal of Structural Engineering 132(11): 1835–1845. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9445(2006)132:11(1835)

Madanat, S.; Mishalani, R.; Ibrahim, W. 1995. Estimation of Infrastructure Transition Probabilities from Condition Rating Data, Journal of Infrastructure Systems 1(2): 120–125. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)1076-0342(1995)1:2(120)

Naito, H. 2011. Random Walk on graph and Google’s PageRank”, Graduate School of Mathematics, Nagoya University, Mathematical agora in FY 2011, Summer intensive course, 50–53.

Niki, K.; Konno, M.; Miyamoto, A.; Nakamura, H.; Ishida, J. 2005. The Proposal of Method of Applying Priority Level of a Maintenance Measure, Journal of Structural Engineering 51A: 367–378.

Nogami, M.; Sugiura, Y. 1986. Mathematical Geography Exercises by Personal Computer, Kokon Publishing Co., Ltd, 137–145.

Ohshima, T. 2009. Asset Management for Infrastructure, Morikita Publishing Co., Ltd, 21–52, 154–178.

Pradhan, A.; Mahinthakumar, G. 2013. Finding All-Pairs Shortest Path for a Large-Scale Transportation Network Using Parallel Floyd-Warshall and Parallel Dijkstra Algorithms, Journal of Computing in Civil Engineering 27(3): 263–273. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CP.1943-5487.0000220

Ranjith, S.; Setunge, S.; Gravina, R.; Venkatesan, S. 2013. Deterioration Prediction of Timber Bridge Elements Using the Markov Chain, Journal of Performance of Constructed Facilities 27(3): 319– 325. http://dx.doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)CF.1943-5509.0000311

Smith, T. E. 1975. A Choice Theory of Spatial Interaction, Regional Science and Urban Economics 5(2): 137–176. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/0166-0462(75)90002-2

Society for Road Structures Conservation, Road Management Technology Center ed. 2008. The Handbook of Road Asset Management. Kajima Institute Publishing Co., Ltd. 211 p.

Stewart, J. Q. 1948. Demographic Gravitation: Evidence and Applications, Sociometry 11(1/2): 31–58. http://dx.doi.org/10.2307/2785468

Tamakoshi, T.; Okubo, M.; Yokoi, Y. 2014. Annual Report of Basic Data on Road Structures in FY 2012, Technical Note of National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan, No. 776: 38.

Tamakoshi, T.; Nakasu, K.; Ishio, M.; Takeda, T. 2004a. Research on the Life Estimation of Highway Bridges, Technical Note of National Institute for Land and Infrastructure Management, Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, Japan, No. 223.

Tamakoshi, T.; Nakasu, K.; Ishio, M.; Takeda, T. 2004b. Recent Trends of Measures and Actions Taken in Relation to Highway Bridge Asset Management, Civil Engineering Journal 46(11): 22–27.

Ünsalan, C.; Sirmacek, B. 2012. Road Network Detection Using Probabilistic and Graph Theoretical Methods, IEEE Transactions on Geoscience and Remote Sensing 50(11): 4441–4453. http://dx.doi.org/10.1109/TGRS.2012.2190078

Wang, I.-L. 2014. An Algebraic Decomposed Algorithm for All Pairs Shortest Paths, Pacific Journal of Optimization 10(3): 561–576.

Warshall, S. 1962. A Theorem on Boolean Matrices, Journal of the ACM (JACM) 9(1): 11–12. http://dx.doi.org/10.1145/321105.321107




DOI: 10.3846/bjrbe.2016.24

Cited-By

1. Triage methodology of bridges for infrastructure management: empirical analysis of road networks in municipalities with declining populations and increasing debts
Takaaki Kawanaka, Masanobu Matsumaru, Shuichi Rokugawa, Hirohito Suzuki, Katsuyuki Suzuki
Structure and Infrastructure Engineering  vol: 14  issue: 8  first page: 1153  year: 2018  
doi: 10.1080/15732479.2017.1402063

Refbacks

  • There are currently no refbacks.


Copyright (c) 2016 Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (VGTU) Press Technika