The Impact of Climate Change on Pavement Temperatures and Asphalt Binder Grade Selection in Estonia Based on Different Climate Change Scenarios

Karli Kontson; Kristjan Lill; Artu Ellmann; Andrus Aavik

doi:10.7250/bjrbe.2025-20.655

The Impact of Climate Change on Pavement Temperatures and Asphalt Binder Grade Selection in Estonia Based on Different Climate Change Scenarios

Authors

Karli Kontson Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-4029-3245
Kristjan Lill Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2095-806X
Dr. Artu Ellmann Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5512-8461
Dr. Andrus Aavik Department of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Tallinn University of Technology, Tallinn, Estonia https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8672-0345

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.7250/bjrbe.2025-20.655

Keywords:

asphalt binder, climate change, pavement temperatures, performance grading, Superpave

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of climate change on asphalt pavement temperatures and Superpave asphalt binder Performance Grade (PG) selection in Estonia. Pavement temperatures were estimated using statistical-empirical pavement temperature prediction models tailored for Estonian conditions. The impact of climate change on pavement temperatures was assessed based on the latest climate change models, assuming three different climate change scenarios for the near, medium and long terms. Projected changes reflect warming trends, with both coastal and mainland areas experiencing substantial shifts in binder grades. Asphalt binder low temperature PG grades are more significantly influenced by climate change, leading to narrower pavement temperature ranges in the region.

Supporting Agencies

Estonian Environmental Agency, European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, The Copernicus Programme

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