The Costs of “Vision Zero”. When Will Infrastructural Investments in Automated Mobility Pay Off?

Abstract

Road safety continues to be a major international concern, with approximately 1.19 million fatalities and up to 50 million injuries occurring annually. In response, the European Union and the United Nations have launched ambitious strategies like “Vision Zero” and the Decade of Action for Road Safety (2021–2030), aiming to drastically reduce or eliminate traffic-related deaths. Countries such as Poland have shown measurable progress, achieving a 35% reduction in fatalities and a 29% decline in total accidents since 2019. As human error remains the dominant cause of traffic accidents, autonomous vehicles (AVs) are being considered a transformative solution. AVs are expected to eliminate typical driver mistakes such as distraction, fatigue, and impaired judgment. However, their deployment requires substantial investment in digital infrastructure, such as V2X and C-V2X communication, HD maps, and 5G networks. This study estimates and compares the annual cost of road accidents caused by human error (EUR 11.13 billion) with the infrastructure investments needed to support AVs in Poland. Based on population density modelling, the number of intersections was estimated at 1.9 million, leading to a V2X deployment cost of EUR 140.1 billion. Adding HD mapping (EUR 1.84 billion) and 5G rollout (EUR 2 billion), the total estimated investment is approximately EUR 143.94 billion. Assuming AVs fully eliminate human error, the investment could be recouped in about 13 years through accident cost savings. While based on simplified assumptions, this initial analysis highlights the potential long-term value of AV implementation in achieving road safety objectives and reducing economic losses from traffic incidents.