Theoretical Principles of Forecasting Accident Rate in the Conflict Sections of the Cities by the Method of Potential Danger
Keywords:
losses in road traffic, accident rate, methods of forecasting, potential dangerAbstract
The article describes an attempt to apply a catastrophe theory for the process of road transport situation development into a conflict situation, which, in the result turns to the accident, through the interpretation of a potential danger of the conflict. For this purpose the simplest methods (elementary catastrophes) were used, allowing to estimate the values of the basic parameters of road traffic. The suggested method made it possible to take into consideration the interaction of conflict points in joint location, what has considerably increased the adequacy of forecasting.
References
The analytical collection of accident rate susceptibility (Аналитический сборник по аварийности). Minsk, 2005. 80 p. (in Russian).
The basic indicators of work in the field of obligatory liability insurance of vehicle owners in the republic of Belarus, 2005. An Analytical Collection (Основные показатели работы по проведению обязательного страхования гражданской ответственности владельцев транспортных средств в Республике Беларусь за 2005 год. Аналитический сборник. Под общ. ред. Кучерина П. М. ). Мinsk, 2006. 89 p. (in Russian).
World report on road traffic injury prevention: summary/edited by Mark Peden: World Health Organization, WHO (Всемирный доклад о предупреждении дорожно-транспортного травматизма: резюме/ редакция Марк Педен: Всемирная организация здравоохранения, ВОЗ), 2004. 54 p. (in Russian).
Address Security Concerns Improving Personal Security for Walking, Cycling, Transit and Urban Infill/ TDM Encyclopaedia, Victoria Transport Policy Institute, Updated Aug 30, 2006. Available from Internet: http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm37.htm.
Ratkevičiūtė, K., Čygas D.; Laurinavičius A.; Mačiulis, A. Analysis and evaluation of the efficiency of road safety measures implemented on Lithuanian roads. The Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering, 2007, Vol II, No 2, p. 81–87.
Vrubel, J. Losses in road traffic (Потери в дорожном движении). Minsk: БНТУ, 2003. 380 p. (in Russian).
Klinkovstein, G. I.; Afanasiev, М. B. Road traffic Organisation: high school manual (Организация дорожного движения: Учеб. для вузов. 4 изд., перераб. и доп.). Moscow: Transport, 1997. 231 p. (in Russian).
Rechov, S. V. Estimation of traffic safety on the road network of St. Petersburg. In Traffic Organisation and Road Traffic Safety in Large Cities: Proc of the 4th International Conference (Организация и безопасность дорожного движения в крупных городах: Материалы четвертой междунар. конф.), СПб, 28–29 сент. 2000 г. НИПИ территор. развития и трансп. инфраструктуры). St. Petersburg, 2000, p. 135–138 (in Russian).
Ludvigsen, H. S. Traffic conflicts experience in Denmark. TRRL Supplementary Report, 1980, No 557, p. 107–114.
Svatkova, Е. А. International experience of pedestrian safety in the cities. In Traffic Organization and Road Traffic Safety in Large Cities: Proc of the 6th International Conference (Организация и безопасность дорожного движения в крупных городах: Сб. докл. шестой междунар. конф./СПбГАСУ. СПб), 2004, p. 158–165 (in Russian).
Ewing, R. Pedestrian and transit friendly design. Joint center for environment and urban problems. Florida Atlantic University / Florida International University. March, 1996. 103 p.
Vasiliev, А. P., Sidenko, V. М. Operation of motor roads and organization of traffic safety: High School Manual (Эксплуатация автомобильных дорог и организация дорожного движения: Учеб. для вузов. Под ред. А. П. Васильева). Moscow: Transport, 1990. 304 p. (in Russian).
Silianov, V. V. Road safety manual (Справочник по безопасности дорожного движения). Мoscow: Transport, 2001. 754 p. (in Russian).
Šeštokas, V. V. City and transport (Город и транспорт).- Мoscow: Strojizdat, 1984. 176 p. (in Russian).
Vaksman, S. А.; Sverdlin, L. I. Modelling of road traffic accidents – urban development aspect. In Organization and Road Traffic Safety in Large Cities: Proc of the 6th Intern Conference (Организация и безопасность дорожного движения в крупных городах: Сб. докл. шестой междунар. конф. / СПбГАСУ. СПб, 2004), p. 305–307 (in Russian).
Haight, F. A. Risk, especially risk of traffic accident. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1986, Vol 18, p. 359–366.
The basic indicators of work in the field of obligatory liability insurance of vehicle owners in the republic of Belarus, 2005. An Analytical Collection (Основные показатели работы по проведению обязательного страхования гражданской ответственности владельцев транспортных средств в Республике Беларусь за 2005 год. Аналитический сборник. Под общ. ред. Кучерина П. М. ). Мinsk, 2006. 89 p. (in Russian).
World report on road traffic injury prevention: summary/edited by Mark Peden: World Health Organization, WHO (Всемирный доклад о предупреждении дорожно-транспортного травматизма: резюме/ редакция Марк Педен: Всемирная организация здравоохранения, ВОЗ), 2004. 54 p. (in Russian).
Address Security Concerns Improving Personal Security for Walking, Cycling, Transit and Urban Infill/ TDM Encyclopaedia, Victoria Transport Policy Institute, Updated Aug 30, 2006. Available from Internet: http://www.vtpi.org/tdm/tdm37.htm.
Ratkevičiūtė, K., Čygas D.; Laurinavičius A.; Mačiulis, A. Analysis and evaluation of the efficiency of road safety measures implemented on Lithuanian roads. The Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering, 2007, Vol II, No 2, p. 81–87.
Vrubel, J. Losses in road traffic (Потери в дорожном движении). Minsk: БНТУ, 2003. 380 p. (in Russian).
Klinkovstein, G. I.; Afanasiev, М. B. Road traffic Organisation: high school manual (Организация дорожного движения: Учеб. для вузов. 4 изд., перераб. и доп.). Moscow: Transport, 1997. 231 p. (in Russian).
Rechov, S. V. Estimation of traffic safety on the road network of St. Petersburg. In Traffic Organisation and Road Traffic Safety in Large Cities: Proc of the 4th International Conference (Организация и безопасность дорожного движения в крупных городах: Материалы четвертой междунар. конф.), СПб, 28–29 сент. 2000 г. НИПИ территор. развития и трансп. инфраструктуры). St. Petersburg, 2000, p. 135–138 (in Russian).
Ludvigsen, H. S. Traffic conflicts experience in Denmark. TRRL Supplementary Report, 1980, No 557, p. 107–114.
Svatkova, Е. А. International experience of pedestrian safety in the cities. In Traffic Organization and Road Traffic Safety in Large Cities: Proc of the 6th International Conference (Организация и безопасность дорожного движения в крупных городах: Сб. докл. шестой междунар. конф./СПбГАСУ. СПб), 2004, p. 158–165 (in Russian).
Ewing, R. Pedestrian and transit friendly design. Joint center for environment and urban problems. Florida Atlantic University / Florida International University. March, 1996. 103 p.
Vasiliev, А. P., Sidenko, V. М. Operation of motor roads and organization of traffic safety: High School Manual (Эксплуатация автомобильных дорог и организация дорожного движения: Учеб. для вузов. Под ред. А. П. Васильева). Moscow: Transport, 1990. 304 p. (in Russian).
Silianov, V. V. Road safety manual (Справочник по безопасности дорожного движения). Мoscow: Transport, 2001. 754 p. (in Russian).
Šeštokas, V. V. City and transport (Город и транспорт).- Мoscow: Strojizdat, 1984. 176 p. (in Russian).
Vaksman, S. А.; Sverdlin, L. I. Modelling of road traffic accidents – urban development aspect. In Organization and Road Traffic Safety in Large Cities: Proc of the 6th Intern Conference (Организация и безопасность дорожного движения в крупных городах: Сб. докл. шестой междунар. конф. / СПбГАСУ. СПб, 2004), p. 305–307 (in Russian).
Haight, F. A. Risk, especially risk of traffic accident. Accident Analysis and Prevention, 1986, Vol 18, p. 359–366.
Downloads
Published
27.09.2007
Issue
Section
Articles
License
Copyright (c) 2007 Vilnius Gediminas Technical University (VGTU) Press Technika
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License.
How to Cite
Kapski, D., Leonovich, I., & Ratkevičiūtė, K. (2007). Theoretical Principles of Forecasting Accident Rate in the Conflict Sections of the Cities by the Method of Potential Danger. The Baltic Journal of Road and Bridge Engineering, 2(3), 133-140. https://bjrbe-journals.rtu.lv/bjrbe/article/view/1822-427X.2007.3.133-140